How long do you think mechanical ultegra 11 speed will be available, just about to order a new bike and love the groupset. Don’t feel the need to go electric but concerned about long term availability of parts for repair replacement over the coming years, is chorus 12 speed a better option?
There will be 11 spd parts available form Shimano for years…you can still find 9 spd stuff.
Will it always be Ultegra stuff? Probably not…but the technology will continue to drift downstream so it will probably be pretty comparable stuff.
But until this year, Ultegra mechncail was Shimano #1 OEM kit…there are literally hundreds of thousands of riders out there with it. Shimano will continue to support it for quite awhile.
Campag 12 is definitely a viable option…but tradeoffs will come with it. Your chances of just walking into a shop and getting replacement parts are pretty slim. But there should be plenty of component options for many years.
That’s helpful, maybe the condraditory advice from bike shops is just an attempt to sell me di2?
You can still buy 6 speed threaded cassettes, friction shifters or even a penny farthing. There is no reason you won’t be able to run 11speed for years.
Usually what disappear quickly is the lighter weight dura-ace level stuff but since things are usually compatible it doesn’t matter a lot.
In terms of consumables (chain, cassette, chainrings) I think you’d be fine for quite a while. It’s worth noting that 105 will continue with mechanical and all of that stuff is compatible with mechanical Ultegra. I can’t see you having issues for a decade, frankly.
If you smash up a shifter or derailleur in 5 years, you might have to go with a 105 replacement (new) or look for 2nd hand: that’s your worst case scenario, realistically. And it’s hardly disastrous.
I’m quite a big Campag fan, and would recommend Chorus over Ultegra, but that’s based on feel and ergonomics, where I think it’s appreciably better. But Ultegra is a bit easier to live with and more set and forget. Campag 12sp setup can be finicky and spares can be a bit trickier to get (though Shimano 12 speed chains work fine on it, fyi) as well as slightly more expensive.
You’ll be fine for a while. That being said if you’re buying new stuff and not moving a group over I’d go 12 speed since You basically can be assured Shimano is likely to stick with 12 speed for close to the next decade.
But that means di2 for shimano?
Yes, unless they have a pending release for Mech-12 at some level. But based on the limited info I have read about Shim, that seems rather unlikely.
The general pattern of Shimano evolution means that consumables like chains and cassettes will remain available in some form for a long time. Components like shifters and derailleurs become more difficult to source as time goes on, and on average after about 3 years finding them new in stock at a dealer/large online retailer is difficult, especially shifters. eBay will always be a source, with the buyer beware caveats.
I have 2 bikes running 9100 mechanical/rim, and another on 9120 mechanical/hydro and I’m probably going to source an extra set of 9100 shifters and a 9120 rear shifter ( I have a spare front from a warranty replacement). It should be noted that I am in general a parts hoarder. And also each of these bikes are custom/small builder and mechanical specific.
Do you think there is a chance we will see a relative shortage of used stock in the next 3-5 years because of the supply chain hiccups of the past 24 months or so?
Thing is - at least as far as I can see - it all comes down to one question.
Is it cheaper to produce mechanical or electrical shifting equipment - go and figure
I think the question is, “Is it more profitable to produce mech or electric?”
Hard to know how the supply issues will affect the used component market. A lot will depend on how quick we recover from the supply issues. Once people can get the latest stuff on demand, used component supply will likely go up.
Judging based on what has been going on in the past two years and how hard it still is even for professionals to source some of those things I definitely think so.
If there was any shortage of used market it wouldn’t matter as there are lots of available cheap compatible 8/9/10/11/12speed replacements from companies like microshift/sunrace and those chinese ones that sell on aliexpress/amazon/ebay.
Imagine showing up for your café ride in full Rapha riding a Colnago with a Sensah 12 sp dérailleur. You would be banned from the group and blocked from social media in a heartbeat.
(Kidding, of course.)
Not sure if that scenario is too unrealistic in some circles.
Nah. Would never happen.
You’d be in Pas Normal. Rapha is very passé in those circles.
Ha. Wasn’t sure which brands were hot where these days. PNS is everywhere in Montreal.
MAAP is making an interesting foray into French cycling groups those days.